"Exploring the Impact of Institutional Placement on the Recidivism of Delinquent Youth" Project Abstract
Objectives: This dissertation examines the relationship between institutional placement (incarceration) and recidivism among a sample of New York City juvenile delinquents. The principal research question is: Does placement, in general, increase or decrease juvenile recidivism? In addition to assessing the aggregate impact of placement on recidivism, this research seeks to discern factors that may condition this relationship, thus differentiating profiles of youth who are most affected by placement, and those who are not. Using theoretical frameworks adopted from criminological literature, I have generated testable hypotheses about characteristics of youth that may affect the relationship between placement and recidivism. Specifically, this research hypothesizes that the overall effect of placement will vary by degree of conventional social bonding and neighborhood of residence. Thus, this project will contribute to scholarship on juvenile offending, court processing, sentencing practices, and criminological theory.
Research Methods: Research subjects are 736 juvenile delinquents who received a disposition in New York City family courts between April and June of 2000. Study subjects were selected by examining family court calendars and identifying all youth who received a disposition during this period. Detailed information about subjects' legal and social histories has been coded from New York City Department of Probation case files, producing a rich baseline dataset. In order to conduct analyses, baseline data are linked to data indicating recidivism. Recidivism is measured by looking at records of re-arrests, re-arrests for violent offenses, re-arrests for felonies, and re-arrests for violent felonies. The follow-up period for predicting recidivism will be eighteen months, not including time spent incarcerated. To examine the relationship between placement and recidivism logistic regression and survival analysis will be used to analyze the data. In statistical models, relevant predictors of criminal behavior will be controlled in order to assess the effect of placement on re-offending patterns. To test hypotheses about factors that may condition this relationship, variables that indicate theoretically relevant social, legal and community characteristics will be included in the statistical models.
Broader Impacts: In addition to potential scholarly contributions, this research can inform the development of juvenile justice policies and practices. It can help judges and other justice officials make sound, empirically-led decisions about juvenile delinquents - particularly in New York City. It can inform the validation and use of risk assessment instruments for making detention and disposition decisions for court-involved youth. The research might also aid the development of alternative-to-placement programs which address the particular needs of youth with diverse personal histories. Finally, this research can help policymakers understand the circumstances that draw youth into the juvenile justice system, and produce policies that lead to the best outcomes for youth after they get out.
