Catherine Fitch, J. Michael Oakes, and Steven Ruggles Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota
This research will assess the impact of changes in male and female economic opportunity on marriage formation in the United States since 1960. The rise in median age at first marriage over the past four decades is one of the most dramatic and consequential demographic shifts in American history. Initially, most analysts ascribed the change to rising economic opportunity and employment of women. More recently, however, demographic researchers have focused on men, contending that stagnant or declining male economic opportunity in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to the unprecedented delay in marriage by reducing the supply of marriageable men.
The central aim of the project is to assess historical changes in the effects of changing male and female opportunity simultaneously. The working hypothesis is that that rising female opportunity discouraged marriage, but that effect diminished over time; after 1970 the decline in the supply of young men with good jobs was the key factor behind late marriage. The analysis will address three key questions: (1) How much of the rise in marriage age may be attributed to shifting economic opportunities of young men and women, rising inequality, and changing spouse availability? (2) Could the differential patterns of change between non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Hispanics be a function of differential socioeconomic conditions? (3) Has the association between economic opportunity and entry into marriage changed over time, especially among women?
This study will capitalize on a vast archive of restricted-access long-form census data currently in preparation by the Census Bureau in collaboration with the Minnesota Population Center. This data series includes the complete long-form census returns for the period from 1960 to 2000. Multi-level analysis will be used to assess the relationship between local economic conditions, measured as wage distributions and labor-force participation, and the marriage decisions of young men and women. The analyses will include separate models by gender, race, and ethnicity.
Broader Impacts: The unprecedented change in marriage patterns since 1960 has profound implications for American society. The wave of recent state and federal initiatives to promote healthy marriages underscores the relevance of historical perspective. Perceptions about the historical transformation of marriage implicitly or explicitly form the foundation for many of these programs. Empirical understanding of long-run changes in American marriage patterns therefore provides essential background for the formulation of effective public policy. In addition to substantive results, the project will yield important ancillary benefits. The experience of carrying out analysis of the new data series will help us improve the design and documentation of the complete long-form census files. We also plan to write a description of the research process to assist others who are planning studies using the restricted census microdata. This research process template will be posted on the IPUMS website.
