9410501 Stahl This research will develop an alternative theory of strategic thinking that would allow for a population of players with a variety of thought processes, would be empirically testable, and would yield more accurate predictions of human behavior. The analysis of the experimental data is expected to answer the following questions, among others: - How well does the model predict relative to alternative theories? - How robust is the determination of the type of a specific player from that player's choices? Is the tpye of identification invariant over a variety and number of games, and is it valid for predicting out-of-sample behavior? - Can extra-ordinary subjects be detected? - Assuming that players are given complete information about the past choices of the population, is it reasonable to assume that the various types would incorporate that information? The study is significant because it provides results that would enrich our understanding of individual decision making in strategic settings.
